IEA says pathway to keep 1.5°C goal within reach "has narrowed", but growth of renewable energy offers hope

The International Energy Agency has updated its 2021 "Net Zero Roadmap" report setting decarbonization objectives for 2050.

The findings of IEA’s revised report on the energy sector transformation highlight that it is still possible to avoid the most catastrophic consequences of the climate crisis. While the organization believes fossil fuel use will peak by 2030 due to renewables’ rapid growth, it states the quick roll-out of clean energy "is not nearly enough" to drastically reduce CO2 emissions.

The report, titled "Net Zero Roadmap: A Global Pathway to Keep the 1.5 °C Goal in Reach" mentions: "Global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the energy sector reached a new record high of 37 billion tonnes (Gt) in 2022, 1% above their pre-pandemic level, but are set to peak this decade."

IEA adds: "Positive developments over the past two years include solar PV installations and electric car sales tracking in line with the milestones set out for them in our 2021 report."

The agency argues the tools for promoting rapid transformations are already available. "Ramping up renewables, improving energy efficiency, cutting methane emissions, and increasing electrification with technologies available today deliver more than 80% of the emissions reductions needed by 2030", says the report.

IEA indicates the largest emission reductions could be achieved by "tripling global installed renewables capacity to 11 000 gigawatts by 2030.", especially for wind and solar power. Along the same lines, "doubling the annual rate of energy intensity improvement by 2030 in the NZE (Net Zero) Scenario saves the energy equivalent of all oil consumption in road transport".

Additionally, the agency sees great cost-effective potential in accelerating electrification and cutting methane emissions from the energy sector by 75%. In this sense, "electricity transmission and distribution grids need to expand by around 2 million kilometers each year to 2030 to meet the needs of the NZE (Net Zero) Scenario."

While the report argues no new coal plants and other fossil fuel projects are needed to satisfy the current demand, IEA argues that "continued investment is required in existing oil and gas assets and already approved projects" to reduce energy security risks and prevent pricing spikes and supply chain difficulties, with geopolitical conflicts still posing a threat to stability.

The agency says investing in clean energies in developing countries is a key step for achieving climate goals. The record USD 1.8 trillion set to be invested in 2023 should increase to USD 4.5 trillion a year in the next ten years for feasible progress, according to the report. Furthermore, carbon capture systems, bioenergy, and hydrogen-based alternatives are urgently needed for tangible progress, says IEA.

In conclusion, "by 2035, emissions need to decline by 80% in advanced economies and 60% in emerging market and developing economies compared to the 2022 level", the report states. IEA notes more urgent measures need to be taken while the time to act is running out.

Author: Marina Vanni